Ground footage forecast
Where footage will likely be geolocated tomorrow and the following days, based on the last 4 weeks. With reliability measured on past days, filmed units and posting accounts.
Situation note
- Last 7 days: 6 geolocated images, about 7 once late geolocations arrive; stable on the previous 7 days.
- Tomorrow (Fri, Nov 6, 2026): about 1 images expected, between 0 and 3 on an ordinary day.
- Most likely sectors within 7 days: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) (15 %), Kubinka-60 (Russian Federation) (15 %), Sali (Sudan) (15 %).
- Most filmed units this week: Sudan Armed Forces (2), FANO (1), Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) (1).
- Most seen equipment this week: Pick-up (1), (Multi-Purpose) Bomber UAV (1).
- Reliability measured over 24 past days: 1 of the 10 sectors announced were filmed within 7 days, against 0 for the “same as yesterday” rule. 88 % of images fall in a sector with no image in the previous 4 weeks: nothing can announce those.
This forecasts footage, not fighting: what GeoConfirmed volunteers will geolocate, based on what they already have. A sector without network or witnesses stays silent, and no past figure announces a new offensive.
images expected tomorrow
1
from 0 to 3 on an ordinary day
sectors above 50%
0
tomorrow
measured reliability
0.2 / 10
announced sectors filmed; “same as yesterday”: 0
unpredictable share
88 %
images in a sector with none in the previous 4 weeks
01Map of likely sectors
unlikelyvery likely
One circle per 8 km sector, redder when an image is more likely tomorrow. Click a circle for details.
02Most likely sectors
| Sector | Tomorrow | 3 d | 7 d | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) Ethiopia · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Nov 3 | 1 % | 3 % | 15 % | new |
| Kubinka-60 (Russian Federation) Moscow Oblast · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Nov 3 · Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) | 1 % | 3 % | 15 % | new |
| Sali (Sudan) Sudan · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Nov 3 · Sudan Armed Forces | 1 % | 3 % | 15 % | new |
| Salim (Sudan) Sudan · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Nov 3 · Sudan Armed Forces | 1 % | 3 % | 15 % | new |
| Agadez (Niger) Niger · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Nov 1 | 1 % | 3 % | 15 % | new |
| Gish Abay (Ethiopia) Ethiopia · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Oct 30 · FANO | 1 % | 3 % | 15 % | new |
| Mali Mali · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Oct 10 · Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) | 0 % | 3 % | 15 % | falling |
| Abiy Addi (Ethiopia) Ethiopia · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Oct 8 · Ethiopian Army | 0 % | 3 % | 14 % | falling |
| Adigrat (Ethiopia) Ethiopia · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Oct 10 · Ethiopian Army | 0 % | 3 % | 15 % | falling |
| Aksum (Ethiopia) Ethiopia · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Oct 13 · Ethiopian Army | 0 % | 3 % | 15 % | falling |
| Fadi (Ethiopia) Ethiopia · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Oct 12 · Ethiopian Army | 0 % | 3 % | 15 % | falling |
| Hawzen (Ethiopia) Ethiopia · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Oct 9 · Ethiopian Army | 0 % | 3 % | 15 % | falling |
| May Mekdan (Ethiopia) Ethiopia · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Oct 9 · Ethiopian Army | 0 % | 3 % | 15 % | falling |
| Shire (Ethiopia) Ethiopia · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Oct 8 · Ethiopian Army | 0 % | 3 % | 14 % | falling |
| Tendelti (Sudan) Sudan · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Oct 20 · Rapid Support Forces | 0 % | 3 % | 15 % | falling |
03Regions: images expected tomorrow
| Region | Expected | Ordinary day | Last 7 days | 3 weeks before, per week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethiopia | 0.2 | 0 → 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Sudan | 0.2 | 0 → 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Moscow Oblast | 0.1 | 0 → 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Niger | 0.1 | 0 → 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Mali | 0.0 | 0 → 0 | 0 | 0 |
“Ordinary day”: 10th to 90th percentile of the last 4 weeks' days. On replayed days, the actual figure of the main regions fell within this range 94 times out of 100.
04Measured reliability
The forecast was replayed for each day from Sep 6 to Oct 22, with only what was known the evening before. Probability recalibration is learnt on the first half (Sep 6 → Sep 28); figures below come from the second (Sep 29 → Oct 22, 24 days), unseen by the method.
Out of 10 announced sectors, how many filmed
Announced probability and observed frequency · tomorrow
| Announced | Observed | Sector-days |
|---|---|---|
| 0 % | 1 % | 158 |
An honest forecast says 30% where about 30% is observed.
05Units filmed this week
| Sudan Armed ForcesCorps, armies, forces · Sudan | 2 |
| FANOOther · Ethiopia | 1 |
| Malian Armed Forces (FAMa)Corps, armies, forces · Moscow Oblast | 1 |
4 images out of 6 name a unit this week.
06Who posts this week
| X account (OSINT, individual) | 100 % |
| X @AfriMEOSINT · Rich Tedd 🛰 ✈️X account (OSINT, individual) · Rebels (M24, RSF, ALF) (+supporting army) | 1 |
| X @Nz9aZ20jEM62bIq · PJ54BNB046XA690438gh04HNYT56njjh632ty65i8932nfi3enX account (OSINT, individual) · Regular army + supporting factions. | 1 |
| X @Said_223_K · Said_223🇲🇱🇫🇷🔥✌🏽X account (OSINT, individual) · Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) | 1 |
| X @ThomasVLinge · Thomas van LingeX account (OSINT, individual) · Regular army + supporting factions. | 1 |
| X @lsiafrica · LSI AFRICAX account (OSINT, individual) · Regular army + supporting factions. | 1 |
| X @war_noir · War NoirX account (OSINT, individual) · Rebels (M24, RSF, ALF) (+supporting army) | 1 |
Share of images by type of the account that posted them first. Type inferred from the account name: an indication, not a check. 30-day detail →