A·G Dawn Geopolitics

L'Aube Étoilée's watch institute

Issue2026 · 282 Today2026.10.09 FR

Watch · 2026.10.09

Today's watch

What last night's reading found in the country files: elections in the next 60 days, elections just held, recent results, new leaders. Each line links to its file.

Files read on 2026.10.08 · 250 countries

Attention signals

Views of the country's Wikipedia article (French and English) compared with their usual level over the last two months

  1. 2026.10.07

    Benin spike

    ×6.4 the usual level: 18,042 views on 2026.10.07, against 2,798 on an ordinary day.

  2. 2026.10.07

    San Marino rise

    ×2.3 the usual level: 7,687 views on 2026.10.07, against 3,325 on an ordinary day.

  3. 2026.10.06

    Yemen rise

    ×2.3 the usual level: 10,692 views on 2026.10.06, against 4,678 on an ordinary day.

Countries to watch

61 countries have at least one alert or watch point in their file · conflicts, sanctions, institutional ruptures, elections, new leaders, global attention

  1. 3 1

    Myanmar

    Conflict theatre: Myanmar Civil War. August 2026: 630 political violence events, 711 deaths (-21% on the previous three-month average). Sanctions targeting the country: United States (1 regime, 154 listings), United Kingdom (1 regime, 76 listings), European Union (1 regime, 128 listings). Recent institutional rupture: Coup militaire 1er février 2021. 1.5 million refugees originating from the country.

  2. 3 1

    Sudan

    Conflict theatre: Sudanese Civil War. August 2026: 266 political violence events, 890 deaths (-2% on the previous three-month average). Sanctions targeting the country: UN (1 regime, 13 listings), United States (2 regimes, 63 listings), United Kingdom (1 regime, 41 listings), European Union (2 regimes, 34 listings). Recent institutional rupture: Coup 25 octobre 2021 (Burhan). 2.8 million refugees originating from the country.

  3. 3 1

    Syria

    Conflict theatre: Post-Assad Syria. August 2026: 228 political violence events, 104 deaths (-2% on the previous three-month average). Sanctions targeting the country: United States (2 regimes, 175 listings), United Kingdom (1 regime, 352 listings), European Union (1 regime, 380 listings). Recent institutional rupture: Chute Assad 8 décembre 2024 (offensive HTS). 4.9 million refugees originating from the country.

  4. 3

    Mali

    Conflict theatre: Sahel insurgency. August 2026: 127 political violence events, 351 deaths (-27% on the previous three-month average). Sanctions targeting the country: United States (1 regime, 4 listings), United Kingdom (1 regime, 3 listings), European Union (1 regime, 4 listings). Recent institutional rupture: Coups 2020 et 2021 (Goïta).

  5. 2 2

    DR Congo

    Conflict theatre: Eastern DRC (M23). August 2026: 226 political violence events, 233 deaths (-8% on the previous three-month average). Sanctions targeting the country: UN (1 regime, 61 listings), United States (1 regime, 98 listings), United Kingdom (1 regime, 73 listings), European Union (1 regime, 86 listings). Recent institutional rupture: Tentative coup mai 2024 (Malanga, échec). 1.2 million refugees originating from the country.

  6. 2 2

    Russian Federation

    Conflict theatre: Russo-Ukrainian War. August 2026: 2,907 political violence events, 139 deaths (+47% on the previous three-month average). Sanctions targeting the country: United States (9 regimes, 7,161 listings), United Kingdom (1 regime, 3,499 listings), European Union (3 regimes, 3,119 listings). Recent institutional rupture: Mutinerie Wagner juin 2023 (avortée). Result of the 2026.09.18 vote (State Duma): United Russia 349 seats, Communist Party of the Russian Federation 37, Liberal Democratic Party of Russia 23 (of 450).

  7. 2 1

    Afghanistan

    Sanctions targeting the country: UN (1 regime, 140 listings), United Kingdom (1 regime, 140 listings), European Union (1 regime, 140 listings). Recent institutional rupture: Prise Kaboul 15 août 2021 (Talibans). 2.7 million refugees originating from the country.

  8. 2

    Burkina Faso

    Conflict theatre: Sahel insurgency. August 2026: 106 political violence events, 277 deaths (-15% on the previous three-month average). Recent institutional rupture: Coups 24 janvier et 30 septembre 2022 (Traoré).

  9. 2

    Chad

    Conflict theatre: Sahel insurgency. August 2026: 17 political violence events, 20 deaths (-46% on the previous three-month average). Recent institutional rupture: Mort Déby père 2021 + transition militaire.

  10. 2

    Haiti

    Conflict theatre: Haitian gang collapse. August 2026: 95 political violence events, 233 deaths (-18% on the previous three-month average). Sanctions targeting the country: UN (1 regime, 11 listings), United Kingdom (1 regime, 11 listings), European Union (1 regime, 13 listings).

  11. 2

    Niger

    Conflict theatre: Sahel insurgency. August 2026: 55 political violence events, 152 deaths (+35% on the previous three-month average). Recent institutional rupture: Coup 26 juillet 2023 (Tchiani).

  12. 2

    Somalia

    Conflict theatre: Somalia insurgency. August 2026: 520 political violence events, 581 deaths (+21% on the previous three-month average). Sanctions targeting the country: UN (1 regime, 24 listings), United States (1 regime, 30 listings), United Kingdom (1 regime, 24 listings), European Union (1 regime, 24 listings).

  13. 2

    Yemen

    Conflict theatre: Yemen War. August 2026: 635 political violence events, 816 deaths (+210% on the previous three-month average). Sanctions targeting the country: UN (1 regime, 11 listings), United States (1 regime, 10 listings), United Kingdom (1 regime, 16 listings), European Union (1 regime, 11 listings).

  14. 1 2

    Ukraine

    Conflict theatre: Russo-Ukrainian War. August 2026: 8,201 political violence events, 4,012 deaths (+4% on the previous three-month average). New head of government since 2026.07.16: Serhiï Koretskyï, replacing Ioulia Svyrydenko. 5.2 million refugees originating from the country.

  15. 1 1

    Guinea-Bissau

    Sanctions targeting the country: UN (1 regime, 10 listings), United Kingdom (1 regime, 12 listings). Result of the 2026.08.30 vote (Constitutional referendum): Yes 70.4%, no 29.6%.

  16. 1 1

    Israel

    Conflict theatre: Gaza–Israel War. August 2026: 5 political violence events, 0 deaths (-87% on the previous three-month average). Knesset on 2026.10.27, in 18 days.

  17. 1 1

    South Sudan

    Sanctions targeting the country: UN (1 regime, 8 listings), United States (1 regime, 24 listings), United Kingdom (1 regime, 12 listings), European Union (1 regime, 9 listings). 2.4 million refugees originating from the country.

  18. 1

    Bangladesh

    Recent institutional rupture: Révolution civile août 2024 (chute Hasina).

  19. 1

    Belarus

    Sanctions targeting the country: United States (2 regimes, 254 listings), United Kingdom (1 regime, 167 listings), European Union (1 regime, 374 listings).

  20. 1

    Benin

    Spike in global attention: Wikipedia views ×6.4 the usual level.

  21. 1

    Central African Republic

    Sanctions targeting the country: UN (1 regime, 15 listings), United States (1 regime, 29 listings), United Kingdom (1 regime, 30 listings), European Union (1 regime, 15 listings).

  22. 1

    Cuba

    Sanctions targeting the country: United States (2 regimes, 172 listings).

  23. 1

    Gabon

    Recent institutional rupture: Coup 30 août 2023 (Oligui Nguema).

  24. 1

    Guinea

    Sanctions targeting the country: United Kingdom (1 regime, 5 listings), European Union (1 regime, 5 listings).

  25. 1

    Iran

    Sanctions targeting the country: UN (1 regime, 121 listings), United States (14 regimes, 4,020 listings), United Kingdom (2 regimes, 570 listings), European Union (1 regime, 707 listings).

and 36 more, on the map in “Watch” mode and in the API (/api/surveillance).

New leaders

Took office within a year, recorded in the last 120 days · Wikidata

  1. 2026.09.27

    Serbia · Head of state

    Ana Brnabić replaces Aleksandar Vučić. Took office 2026.09.27, recorded 2026.09.29

  2. 2026.08.28

    Norway · Head of state

    Haakon VIII replaces Harald V de Norvège. Took office 2026.08.28, recorded 2026.08.30

  3. 2026.08.19

    Hungary · Head of state

    András Baka replaces Tamás Sulyok. Took office 2026.08.19, recorded 2026.08.21

  4. 2026.08.07

    Colombia · Head of state and government

    Abelardo de la Espriella replaces Gustavo Petro. Took office 2026.08.07, recorded 2026.08.10

  5. 2026.07.28

    Peru · Head of state

    Keiko Fujimori replaces José María Balcázar. Took office 2026.07.28, recorded 2026.07.30

  6. 2026.07.22

    Moldova · Head of government

    Vasile Tofan replaces Alexandru Munteanu. Took office 2026.07.22, recorded 2026.07.24

  7. 2026.07.20

    United Kingdom · Head of government

    Andy Burnham replaces Keir Starmer. Took office 2026.07.20, recorded 2026.07.24

  8. 2026.07.16

    Ukraine · Head of government

    Serhiï Koretskyï replaces Ioulia Svyrydenko. Took office 2026.07.16, recorded 2026.08.26

  9. 2026.07.14

    Lithuania · Head of government

    Mindaugas Sinkevičius replaces Inga Ruginienė. Took office 2026.07.14, recorded 2026.08.07

  10. 2026.07.01

    South Korea · Head of government

    Han Seong-sook replaces Lee Jae-myung. Took office 2026.07.01, recorded 2026.10.08

  11. 2026.06.19

    Cape Verde · Head of government

    Francisco Carvalho replaces Ulisses Correia e Silva. Took office 2026.06.19, recorded 2026.07.08

  12. 2026.06.04

    Slovenia · Head of government

    Janez Janša replaces Robert Golob. Took office 2026.06.04, recorded 2026.07.08

  13. 2026.05.28

    Latvia · Head of government

    Andris Kulbergs replaces Evika Siliņa. Took office 2026.05.28, recorded 2026.10.04

  14. 2026.05.24

    Benin · Head of state

    Romuald Wadagni replaces Patrice Talon. Took office 2026.05.24, recorded 2026.07.08

  15. 2026.05.09

    Hungary · Head of government

    Péter Magyar replaces Viktor Orbán. Took office 2026.05.09, recorded 2026.07.08

  16. 2026.05.08

    Bulgaria · Head of government

    Roumen Radev replaces Rossen Jeliazkov. Took office 2026.05.08, recorded 2026.07.08

  17. 2026.05.08

    Costa Rica · Head of state and government

    Laura Fernández Delgado replaces Rodrigo Chaves Robles. Took office 2026.05.08, recorded 2026.07.08

  18. 2026.03.15

    Madagascar · Head of government

    Mamitiana Rajaonarison replaces Ruphin Zafisambo. Took office 2026.03.15, recorded 2026.10.04

  19. 2026.02.17

    Bangladesh · Head of government

    Tarique Rahman replaces Muhammad Yunus. Took office 2026.02.17, recorded 2026.07.08

  20. 2025.10.14

    Madagascar · Head of state

    Michael Randrianirina replaces Andry Rajoelina. Took office 2025.10.14, recorded 2026.10.07

Upcoming elections

Next 60 days · file calendars (Institute, Wikipedia)

  1. 2026.10.09

    Czechia · Senate (1st round)

  2. 2026.10.25

    Brazil · President (2nd round)

  3. 2026.10.25

    Bulgaria · President

  4. 2026.10.25

    Serbia · Parliament

  5. 2026.10.27

    Israel · Knesset

    Bilan Netanyahu — coalition très droite

  6. Nov 2026

    Nicaragua · Présidentielle

  7. 2026.11.03

    United States of America · House of Representatives and Senate

    Contrôle Congrès — base trumpienne testée

  8. 2026.11.05

    Grenada · Parliament

  9. 2026.11.07

    New Zealand · Parliament

  10. 2026.11.15

    Cape Verde · President

  11. 2026.11.28

    Palestine · Parliament

  12. 2026.11.29

    Spain · Senate and Congress of Deputies

  13. 2026.11.29

    Switzerland · Referendums

  14. 2026.12.05

    Gambia · President

  15. 2026.12.06

    Guinea-Bissau · President and Parliament

Held, result pending

Last 45 days · the result will enter the file once published

  1. 2026.09.27

    Switzerland · Referendums

Recent results

  1. 2026.10.04

    Brazil · President (1st round), Chamber of Deputies and Senate

    Flávio Bolsonaro 47.0% vs Lula da Silva 45.2%, runoff on October 25, 2026 · turnout 78.9%

  2. 2026.10.04

    Bosnia and Herzegovina · Presidency and House of Representatives

    Elected: Denis Bećirović 38.2%, Darijana Filipović 46.5%, Željka Cvijanović 55.6%

  3. 2026.10.03

    Latvia · Parliament

    United List 41 seats, Latvia First 17, SV–AJ 15 (of 100) · turnout 51.8%

  4. Sep 2026

    Morocco · House of Representatives

    Authenticity and Modernity Party 97 seats, National Rally of Independents 66, Istiqlal Party 65 (of 395) · turnout 38.1%

  5. 2026.09.27

    São Tomé and Príncipe · Parliament

    Movement for the Liberation of São Tomé and Príncipe – Social Democratic Party 24 seats, Independent Democratic Action 23, MCI/PS–PUN 6 (of 55) · turnout 37.3%

  6. 2026.09.24

    Isle of Man · House of Keys

    Independents 22 seats, Manx Labour Party 2 (of 24) · turnout 50.7%

  7. 2026.09.18

    Russian Federation · State Duma

    United Russia 349 seats, Communist Party of the Russian Federation 37, Liberal Democratic Party of Russia 23 (of 450) · turnout 59.6%

  8. 2026.09.13

    Sweden · Parliament

    Swedish Social Democratic Party 99 seats, Moderate Party 70, Sweden Democrats 62 (of 349) · turnout 84.9%

  9. 2026.08.30

    Guinea-Bissau · Constitutional referendum

    Yes 70.4%, no 29.6%

  10. 2026.08.29

    Iceland · Referendum

    Yes 47.2%, no 52.8%

This page writes itself every night from the country files. Signed analysis lives in the Logbook; sources and their pace are in the method.

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