Ground footage forecast
Where footage will likely be geolocated tomorrow and the following days, based on the last 4 weeks. With reliability measured on past days, filmed units and posting accounts.
Situation note
- Last 7 days: 65 geolocated images, about 72 once late geolocations arrive; down 47% on the previous 7 days.
- Tomorrow (Fri, Nov 6, 2026): about 14 images expected, between 0 and 25 on an ordinary day.
- Most likely sectors within 7 days: Slovyansk (Ukraine) (63 %), Kyiv (Ukraine) (61 %), Kostyantynivka (Ukraine) (54 %).
- Most filmed units this week: 3rd Special Operations Detachment (10), Hornets of the 3rd Special Operations Regiment (10), Special Operations Center "East" (10).
- Most seen equipment this week: Fixed Wing OWAD (One Way Attack Drone) (17), FPV (First Person View) OWAD (One Way Attack Drone) (14), Semi-Truck (6).
- Footage comes first from “X account (OSINT, individual)” accounts (89 % of main sources), ahead of “Telegram channel (blogger, aggregator)” (6 %).
- Reliability measured over 24 past days: 7 of the 10 sectors announced were filmed within 7 days, against 4 for the “same as yesterday” rule. 41 % of images fall in a sector with no image in the previous 4 weeks: nothing can announce those.
This forecasts footage, not fighting: what GeoConfirmed volunteers will geolocate, based on what they already have. A sector without network or witnesses stays silent, and no past figure announces a new offensive.
images expected tomorrow
14
from 0 to 25 on an ordinary day
sectors above 50%
5
within 7 days
measured reliability
6.7 / 10
announced sectors filmed; “same as yesterday”: 4.3
unpredictable share
41 %
images in a sector with none in the previous 4 weeks
01Map of likely sectors
unlikelyvery likely
One circle per 8 km sector, redder when an image is more likely within 7 days. Click a circle for details.
02Most likely sectors
| Sector | Tomorrow | 3 d | 7 d | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovyansk (Ukraine) Donetsk Oblast · filmed 7 d out of 28, last Nov 2 · UAS Company "Hugin" | 16 % | 40 % | 63 % | steady |
| Kyiv (Ukraine) Kyiv city · filmed 11 d out of 28, last Oct 27 · Security Service of Ukraine (SBU/SSU) | 15 % | 37 % | 61 % | falling |
| Kostyantynivka (Ukraine) Donetsk Oblast · filmed 8 d out of 28, last Oct 30 · UAV Company "Cursed Empire" | 13 % | 32 % | 54 % | falling |
| Kup'yans'k (Ukraine) Kharkiv Oblast · filmed 7 d out of 28, last Nov 1 · 41st Separate Mechanized Brigade | 13 % | 32 % | 54 % | steady |
| Ozerne (Ukraine) Donetsk Oblast · filmed 5 d out of 28, last Oct 31 · Unmanned Systems Battalion "Rassvet" of the 38th Unmanned Systems Brigade | 12 % | 30 % | 51 % | steady |
| Druzhkivka (Ukraine) Donetsk Oblast · filmed 4 d out of 28, last Oct 30 · UAV Unit "Cuckoos Nest" / "Гнездо Кукушки" | 12 % | 29 % | 50 % | steady |
| Kherson (Ukraine) Kherson Oblast · filmed 8 d out of 28, last Nov 2 · 18th Combined Arms Army | 11 % | 28 % | 48 % | falling |
| Rodyns'ke (Ukraine) Donetsk Oblast · filmed 7 d out of 28, last Oct 30 · 20th Operational Brigade "LYUBART" | 11 % | 28 % | 48 % | falling |
| Lyman (Ukraine) Donetsk Oblast · filmed 6 d out of 28, last Oct 28 · Battalion "Shrama" / "ШРАМА" | 11 % | 27 % | 47 % | falling |
| Dnipro (Ukraine) Dnipropetrovsk Oblast · filmed 4 d out of 28, last Nov 3 | 11 % | 27 % | 47 % | steady |
| Zaporizhzhia (Ukraine) Zaporizhia Oblast · filmed 6 d out of 28, last Oct 29 | 10 % | 25 % | 45 % | steady |
| Kstovo (Russian Federation) Nizhny Novgorod Oblast · filmed 2 d out of 28, last Nov 2 | 9 % | 23 % | 42 % | new |
| Dobropillya (Ukraine) Donetsk Oblast · filmed 5 d out of 28, last Oct 27 · 177th Naval Infantry Regiment | 9 % | 23 % | 41 % | falling |
| Oleshky (Ukraine) Kherson Oblast · filmed 2 d out of 28, last Nov 2 · ) | 8 % | 20 % | 37 % | new |
| Donetsk (Ukraine) Donetsk Oblast · filmed 4 d out of 28, last Nov 2 · 26th Motorized Rifle Regiment | 8 % | 20 % | 37 % | steady |
03Regions: images expected tomorrow
| Region | Expected | Ordinary day | Last 7 days | 3 weeks before, per week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donetsk Oblast | 3.9 | 0 → 9 | 16 | 42 |
| Zaporizhia Oblast | 2.6 | 0 → 11 | 17 | 25 |
| Kharkiv Oblast | 1.2 | 0 → 4 | 5 | 13 |
| Kyiv city | 0.7 | 0 → 4 | 0 | 9 |
| Kherson Oblast | 0.7 | 0 → 3 | 3 | 8 |
| Nizhny Novgorod Oblast | 0.5 | 0 → 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Belgorod Oblast | 0.5 | 0 → 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Luhansk Oblast | 0.4 | 0 → 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Samara Oblast | 0.4 | 0 → 3 | 4 | 1 |
| Dnipropetrovsk Oblast | 0.4 | 0 → 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Yaroslavl Oblast | 0.3 | 0 → 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Oryol Oblast | 0.3 | 0 → 0 | 0 | 3 |
“Ordinary day”: 10th to 90th percentile of the last 4 weeks' days. On replayed days, the actual figure of the main regions fell within this range 95 times out of 100.
04Measured reliability
The forecast was replayed for each day from Sep 5 to Oct 22, with only what was known the evening before. Probability recalibration is learnt on the first half (Sep 5 → Sep 28); figures below come from the second (Sep 29 → Oct 22, 24 days), unseen by the method.
Out of 10 announced sectors, how many filmed
Announced probability and observed frequency · 7 days
| Announced | Observed | Sector-days |
|---|---|---|
| 8 % | 7 % | 1,522 |
| 13 % | 15 % | 1,689 |
| 25 % | 21 % | 478 |
| 37 % | 35 % | 280 |
| 51 % | 57 % | 148 |
| 69 % | 69 % | 156 |
An honest forecast says 30% where about 30% is observed.
05Units filmed this week
| 3rd Special Operations DetachmentSpecial forces, intelligence · Zaporizhia Oblast | 10 |
| Hornets of the 3rd Special Operations RegimentSpecial forces, intelligence · Zaporizhia Oblast | 10 |
| Special Operations Center "East"Special forces, intelligence · Zaporizhia Oblast | 10 |
| Unmanned Systems Battalion "Argos"Drones · Donetsk Oblast | 4 |
| 4th Guards Tank DivisionBrigades, regiments, battalions · Kharkiv Oblast | 2 |
| Unmanned Systems Battalion "STRIX" / "СТРІКС"Drones · Belgorod Oblast | 2 |
| "Forpost"Other · Kherson Oblast | 1 |
| "Sky Riders" of theOther · Kharkiv Oblast | 1 |
| (Ukrainian Unit claimed)Other · Kharkiv Oblast | 1 |
| )Other · Kherson Oblast | 1 |
35 images out of 65 name a unit this week.
06Who posts this week
| Institution or unit | 5 % |
| Telegram channel (blogger, aggregator) | 6 % |
| X account (OSINT, individual) | 89 % |
| X @Maks_NAFO_FELLA · MAKS 26 🇺🇦👀X account (OSINT, individual) · Ukraine | 10 |
| X @NOELreports · NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦X account (OSINT, individual) · Ukraine | 10 |
| Telegram exilenova_plus · Exilenova+Telegram channel (blogger, aggregator) · Ukraine | 9 |
| X @ZoamSc2 · ZoamX account (OSINT, individual) · Russia | 8 |
| X @99Dominik_ · DominikX account (OSINT, individual) · Russia | 7 |
| Telegram hB1Qfe0kuFxiZGMy · ТУМАН🇷🇺Telegram channel (blogger, aggregator) · Russia | 5 |
| X @Magyargeo56 · Карпатський MagyarX account (OSINT, individual) · Ukraine | 5 |
| X @Bielitzling · BielitzX account (OSINT, individual) · Ukraine | 4 |
Share of images by type of the account that posted them first. Type inferred from the account name: an indication, not a check. 30-day detail →