Ground footage forecast
Where footage will likely be geolocated tomorrow and the following days, based on the last 4 weeks. With reliability measured on past days, filmed units and posting accounts.
Situation note
- Last 7 days: 5 geolocated images, about 6 once late geolocations arrive; down 24% on the previous 7 days.
- Tomorrow (Fri, Nov 6, 2026): about 1 images expected, between 0 and 4 on an ordinary day.
- Most likely sectors within 7 days: Murad (Yemen) (33 %), Yemen (33 %), Taizz (Yemen) (21 %).
- Most filmed units this week: Yemeni Armed Forces (2), 22nd Infantry Brigade (1), Ansar Allah (1).
- Reliability measured over 22 past days: 3 of the 10 sectors announced were filmed within 7 days, against 3 for the “same as yesterday” rule. 42 % of images fall in a sector with no image in the previous 4 weeks: nothing can announce those.
This forecasts footage, not fighting: what GeoConfirmed volunteers will geolocate, based on what they already have. A sector without network or witnesses stays silent, and no past figure announces a new offensive.
images expected tomorrow
1
from 0 to 4 on an ordinary day
sectors above 50%
0
within 7 days
measured reliability
2.6 / 10
announced sectors filmed; “same as yesterday”: 2.7
unpredictable share
42 %
images in a sector with none in the previous 4 weeks
01Map of likely sectors
unlikelyvery likely
One circle per 8 km sector, redder when an image is more likely within 7 days. Click a circle for details.
02Most likely sectors
| Sector | Tomorrow | 3 d | 7 d | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Murad (Yemen) Yemen · filmed 6 d out of 28, last Nov 2 · Southern Giants Brigade | 9 % | 17 % | 33 % | steady |
| Yemen Yemen · filmed 2 d out of 28, last Nov 4 · Yemeni Armed Forces | 9 % | 17 % | 33 % | new |
| Taizz (Yemen) Yemen · filmed 5 d out of 28, last Oct 21 · Ansar Allah | 5 % | 11 % | 21 % | falling |
| Al Misrakh (Yemen) Yemen · filmed 3 d out of 28, last Oct 28 · Yemeni Government forces | 4 % | 9 % | 19 % | falling |
| Yemen Yemen · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Oct 30 · Ansar Allah | 4 % | 8 % | 18 % | new |
| Yasaihar (Yemen) Yemen · filmed 3 d out of 28, last Oct 25 · Ansar Allah forces Yemeni Government Forces | 4 % | 7 % | 16 % | falling |
| Yemen Yemen · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Oct 27 · Yemeni Armed Forces | 3 % | 6 % | 12 % | falling |
| Tuwaiq (Saudi Arabia) Saudi Arabia · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Oct 27 · Saudi Air Force | 3 % | 6 % | 12 % | falling |
| Abha Saudi Arabia (Saudi Arabia) Saudi Arabia · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Oct 25 · Saudi Air Force | 2 % | 6 % | 10 % | falling |
| Dar Qashimiyah (Yemen) Yemen · filmed 2 d out of 28, last Oct 17 · Yemeni Government forces (PLC) | 2 % | 5 % | 8 % | falling |
| Al Khobh Saudi Arabia (Yemen) Yemen · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Oct 20 · Ansar Allah | 1 % | 5 % | 8 % | falling |
| Yemen Yemen · filmed 2 d out of 28, last Oct 10 · Ansar Allah forces Yemeni Government Forces | 1 % | 5 % | 8 % | falling |
| Al 'Awarid (Yemen) Yemen · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Oct 20 · Yemeni Armed Forces | 1 % | 5 % | 8 % | falling |
| الخشل Saudi Arabia (Saudi Arabia) Saudi Arabia · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Oct 20 · Ansar Allah | 1 % | 5 % | 8 % | falling |
| سوق المزرق (Yemen) Yemen · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Oct 20 · Ansar Allah | 1 % | 5 % | 8 % | falling |
03Regions: images expected tomorrow
| Region | Expected | Ordinary day | Last 7 days | 3 weeks before, per week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yemen | 1.2 | 0 → 4 | 6 | 13 |
| Saudi Arabia | 0.1 | 0 → 2 | 0 | 2 |
| at sea | 0.0 | 0 → 0 | 0 | 0 |
“Ordinary day”: 10th to 90th percentile of the last 4 weeks' days. On replayed days, the actual figure of the main regions fell within this range 91 times out of 100.
04Measured reliability
The forecast was replayed for each day from Sep 9 to Oct 22, with only what was known the evening before. Probability recalibration is learnt on the first half (Sep 9 → Sep 30); figures below come from the second (Oct 1 → Oct 22, 22 days), unseen by the method.
Out of 10 announced sectors, how many filmed
Announced probability and observed frequency · 7 days
| Announced | Observed | Sector-days |
|---|---|---|
| 4 % | 12 % | 170 |
| 7 % | 0 % | 30 |
| 15 % | 14 % | 66 |
| 23 % | 26 % | 194 |
An honest forecast says 30% where about 30% is observed.
05Units filmed this week
| Yemeni Armed ForcesCorps, armies, forces · Yemen | 2 |
| 22nd Infantry BrigadeBrigades, regiments, battalions · Yemen | 1 |
| Ansar AllahOther · Yemen | 1 |
| Southern Giants BrigadeBrigades, regiments, battalions · Yemen | 1 |
3 images out of 5 name a unit this week.
06Who posts this week
| X account (OSINT, individual) | 100 % |
| X @LoLManya · MPGeointX account (OSINT, individual) · Regular army | 4 |
| X @Of3uu · شوؤن المعارك -- اليمنX account (OSINT, individual) · Regular army | 2 |
| X @ALyemennow · اليمن الآنX account (OSINT, individual) · Regular army | 1 |
| X @Yem_LF · شؤون المعاركX account (OSINT, individual) · Regular army | 1 |
| X @taha_saleh_taiz · طه صالحX account (OSINT, individual) · Regular army | 1 |
Share of images by type of the account that posted them first. Type inferred from the account name: an indication, not a check. 30-day detail →