Ground footage forecast
Where footage will likely be geolocated tomorrow and the following days, based on the last 4 weeks. With reliability measured on past days, filmed units and posting accounts.
Situation note
- Last 7 days: 6 geolocated images, about 7 once late geolocations arrive; stable on the previous 7 days.
- Tomorrow (Fri, Nov 6, 2026): about 1 images expected, between 0 and 4 on an ordinary day.
- Most likely sectors within 7 days: Maghazi (Palestine) (30 %), Zawtar El Charqiyeh (Lebanon) (12 %), Palestine (6 %).
- Most filmed units this week: Free Homeland Forces (6).
- Reliability measured over 24 past days: 2 of the 10 sectors announced were filmed within 7 days, against 8 for the “same as yesterday” rule. 32 % of images fall in a sector with no image in the previous 4 weeks: nothing can announce those.
This forecasts footage, not fighting: what GeoConfirmed volunteers will geolocate, based on what they already have. A sector without network or witnesses stays silent, and no past figure announces a new offensive.
images expected tomorrow
1
from 0 to 4 on an ordinary day
sectors above 50%
0
tomorrow
measured reliability
0.7 / 10
announced sectors filmed; “same as yesterday”: 1.2
unpredictable share
32 %
images in a sector with none in the previous 4 weeks
01Map of likely sectors
unlikelyvery likely
One circle per 8 km sector, redder when an image is more likely tomorrow. Click a circle for details.
02Most likely sectors
| Sector | Tomorrow | 3 d | 7 d | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maghazi (Palestine) Palestine · filmed 3 d out of 28, last Nov 3 · Free Homeland Forces | 7 % | 18 % | 30 % | steady |
| Zawtar El Charqiyeh (Lebanon) Lebanon · filmed 2 d out of 28, last Oct 27 · Israel Defense Forces (IDF) | 5 % | 13 % | 12 % | falling |
| Palestine Palestine · filmed 2 d out of 28, last Oct 24 · Israel Defense Forces (IDF) | 4 % | 10 % | 6 % | falling |
| Gaza (Palestine) Palestine · filmed 4 d out of 28, last Oct 19 · Israeli Air Force | 3 % | 8 % | 6 % | falling |
| Palestine Palestine · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Oct 21 · Israel Defense Forces (IDF) | 1 % | 5 % | 6 % | falling |
| Seddiqine (Lebanon) Lebanon · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Oct 20 · Israeli Air Force | 1 % | 5 % | 6 % | falling |
| Palestine Palestine · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Oct 18 | 0 % | 5 % | 6 % | falling |
| Palestine Palestine · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Oct 16 | 0 % | 4 % | 6 % | falling |
| Palestine Palestine · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Oct 11 · Israeli Air Force | 0 % | 3 % | 5 % | falling |
03Regions: images expected tomorrow
| Region | Expected | Ordinary day | Last 7 days | 3 weeks before, per week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palestine | 0.9 | 0 → 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Lebanon | 0.2 | 0 → 0 | 0 | 2 |
“Ordinary day”: 10th to 90th percentile of the last 4 weeks' days. On replayed days, the actual figure of the main regions fell within this range 99 times out of 100.
04Measured reliability
The forecast was replayed for each day from Sep 6 to Oct 22, with only what was known the evening before. Probability recalibration is learnt on the first half (Sep 6 → Sep 28); figures below come from the second (Sep 29 → Oct 22, 24 days), unseen by the method.
Out of 10 announced sectors, how many filmed
Announced probability and observed frequency · tomorrow
| Announced | Observed | Sector-days |
|---|---|---|
| 2 % | 1 % | 106 |
| 7 % | 8 % | 37 |
| 27 % | 29 % | 24 |
An honest forecast says 30% where about 30% is observed.
05Units filmed this week
| Free Homeland ForcesCorps, armies, forces · Palestine | 6 |
6 images out of 6 name a unit this week.
06Who posts this week
| X account (OSINT, individual) | 100 % |
| X @ItayBlumental · איתי בלומנטל 🇮🇱 Itay BlumentalX account (OSINT, individual) · Other Militant Factions | 6 |
| X @Stinky915846091 · StinkyX account (OSINT, individual) · Other Militant Factions | 6 |
Share of images by type of the account that posted them first. Type inferred from the account name: an indication, not a check. 30-day detail →