Ground footage forecast
Where footage will likely be geolocated tomorrow and the following days, based on the last 4 weeks. With reliability measured on past days, filmed units and posting accounts.
Situation note
- Last 7 days: 5 geolocated images, about 5 once late geolocations arrive; stable on the previous 7 days.
- Tomorrow (Sat, Nov 7, 2026): about 1 images expected, between 0 and 2 on an ordinary day.
- Most likely sectors within 7 days: Paris (France) (0 %), La Verrière (France) (0 %), Gorice (Bosnia and Herzegovina) (0 %).
- Footage comes first from “X account (OSINT, individual)” accounts (80 % of main sources), ahead of “News outlet” (20 %).
This forecasts footage, not fighting: what GeoConfirmed volunteers will geolocate, based on what they already have. A sector without network or witnesses stays silent, and no past figure announces a new offensive.
images expected tomorrow
1
from 0 to 2 on an ordinary day
sectors above 50%
0
tomorrow
measured reliability
0 / 10
announced sectors filmed; “same as yesterday”: 0
unpredictable share
100 %
images in a sector with none in the previous 4 weeks
01Map of likely sectors
unlikelyvery likely
One circle per 8 km sector, redder when an image is more likely tomorrow. Click a circle for details.
02Most likely sectors
| Sector | Tomorrow | 3 d | 7 d | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris (France) France · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Oct 31 | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | new |
| La Verrière (France) France · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Oct 23 | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | falling |
| Gorice (Bosnia and Herzegovina) Bosnia and Herzegovina · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Oct 29 | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | falling |
| Hmoud (Jordan) Jordan · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Oct 23 | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | falling |
| La Cabezuela (Spain) Spain · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Oct 28 | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | falling |
| Lyon (France) France · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Oct 31 | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | new |
| Marseille (France) France · filmed 1 d out of 28, last Oct 31 | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | new |
03Regions: images expected tomorrow
| Region | Expected | Ordinary day | Last 7 days | 3 weeks before, per week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 0.4 | 0 → 0 | 5 | 1 |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0.1 | 0 → 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Spain | 0.0 | 0 → 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan | 0.0 | 0 → 0 | 0 | 0 |
“Ordinary day”: 10th to 90th percentile of the last 4 weeks' days. On replayed days, the actual figure of the main regions fell within this range 100 times out of 100.
04Measured reliability
The forecast was replayed for each day from Sep 30 to Oct 23, with only what was known the evening before. Probability recalibration is learnt on the first half (Sep 30 → Oct 11); figures below come from the second (Oct 12 → Oct 23, 12 days), unseen by the method.
Out of 10 announced sectors, how many filmed
Announced probability and observed frequency · tomorrow
| Announced | Observed | Sector-days |
|---|---|---|
| 2 % | 0 % | 23 |
An honest forecast says 30% where about 30% is observed.
05Units filmed this week
No unit named this week.
06Who posts this week
| News outlet | 20 % |
| X account (OSINT, individual) | 80 % |
| X @CLPRESSFR · CLPRESS / Agence de presseX account (OSINT, individual) · Other | 2 |
| X @ATmediaa · A T MediaNews outlet · Conflicts | 1 |
| X @LucAuffret · Luc AuffretX account (OSINT, individual) · Other | 1 |
| X @actufr_lyon · actu LyonX account (OSINT, individual) · Other | 1 |
Share of images by type of the account that posted them first. Type inferred from the account name: an indication, not a check. 30-day detail →