Ground footage forecast
Where footage will likely be geolocated tomorrow and the following days, based on the last 4 weeks. With reliability measured on past days, filmed units and posting accounts.
Situation note
- Last 7 days: 129 geolocated images, about 143 once late geolocations arrive; down 31% on the previous 7 days.
- Tomorrow (Thu, Nov 5, 2026): about 25 images expected, between 15 and 37 on an ordinary day.
- Most likely sectors within 7 days: Kyiv (Ukraine) (74 %), Slovyansk (Ukraine) (68 %), Kramatorsk (Ukraine) (65 %).
- Most filmed units this week: 3rd Special Operations Detachment (10), Hornets of the 3rd Special Operations Regiment (10), Special Operations Center "East" (10).
- Most seen equipment this week: Fixed Wing OWAD (One Way Attack Drone) (24), FPV (First Person View) OWAD (One Way Attack Drone) (24), Semi-Truck (6).
- Footage comes first from “X account (OSINT, individual)” accounts (93 % of main sources), ahead of “Telegram channel (blogger, aggregator)” (3 %).
- Reliability measured over 24 past days: 7 of the 10 sectors announced were filmed within 7 days, against 4 for the “same as yesterday” rule. 45 % of images fall in a sector with no image in the previous 4 weeks: nothing can announce those.
This forecasts footage, not fighting: what GeoConfirmed volunteers will geolocate, based on what they already have. A sector without network or witnesses stays silent, and no past figure announces a new offensive.
images expected tomorrow
25
from 15 to 37 on an ordinary day
sectors above 50%
0
tomorrow
measured reliability
2.1 / 10
announced sectors filmed; “same as yesterday”: 1.4
unpredictable share
45 %
images in a sector with none in the previous 4 weeks
01Map of likely sectors
unlikelyvery likely
One circle per 8 km sector, redder when an image is more likely tomorrow. Click a circle for details.
02Most likely sectors
| Sector | Tomorrow | 3 d | 7 d | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyiv (Ukraine) Kyiv city · filmed 14 d out of 28, last Oct 29 · Security Service of Ukraine (SBU/SSU) | 23 % | 49 % | 74 % | falling |
| Slovyansk (Ukraine) Donetsk Oblast · filmed 7 d out of 28, last Nov 2 · UAS Company "Hugin" | 20 % | 43 % | 68 % | steady |
| Kramatorsk (Ukraine) Donetsk Oblast · filmed 7 d out of 28, last Oct 31 | 19 % | 41 % | 65 % | steady |
| Kherson (Ukraine) Kherson Oblast · filmed 9 d out of 28, last Nov 2 · 18th Combined Arms Army | 17 % | 38 % | 60 % | falling |
| Druzhkivka (Ukraine) Donetsk Oblast · filmed 5 d out of 28, last Oct 30 · UAV Unit "Cuckoos Nest" / "Гнездо Кукушки" | 17 % | 38 % | 60 % | steady |
| Kostyantynivka (Ukraine) Donetsk Oblast · filmed 9 d out of 28, last Oct 30 · UAV Company "Cursed Empire" | 16 % | 37 % | 59 % | falling |
| Kharkiv (Ukraine) Kharkiv Oblast · filmed 7 d out of 28, last Nov 3 | 16 % | 36 % | 59 % | falling |
| Kup'yans'k (Ukraine) Kharkiv Oblast · filmed 7 d out of 28, last Nov 1 · 41st Separate Mechanized Brigade | 15 % | 35 % | 57 % | steady |
| Murad (Yemen) Yemen · filmed 6 d out of 28, last Nov 2 · Southern Giants Brigade | 15 % | 34 % | 56 % | steady |
| Oleshky (Ukraine) Kherson Oblast · filmed 3 d out of 28, last Nov 2 · ) | 14 % | 33 % | 54 % | new |
| Ozerne (Ukraine) Donetsk Oblast · filmed 5 d out of 28, last Oct 31 · Unmanned Systems Battalion "Rassvet" of the 38th Unmanned Systems Brigade | 14 % | 33 % | 54 % | steady |
| Luhansk (Ukraine) Luhansk Oblast · filmed 4 d out of 28, last Nov 2 | 14 % | 32 % | 53 % | steady |
| Rodyns'ke (Ukraine) Donetsk Oblast · filmed 7 d out of 28, last Oct 30 · 20th Operational Brigade "LYUBART" | 13 % | 30 % | 50 % | falling |
| Lyman (Ukraine) Donetsk Oblast · filmed 6 d out of 28, last Oct 28 · Battalion "Shrama" / "ШРАМА" | 13 % | 29 % | 49 % | steady |
| Dnipro (Ukraine) Dnipropetrovsk Oblast · filmed 4 d out of 28, last Nov 3 | 12 % | 29 % | 48 % | steady |
03Regions: images expected tomorrow
| Region | Expected | Ordinary day | Last 7 days | 3 weeks before, per week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donetsk Oblast | 4.5 | 0 → 9 | 22 | 42 |
| Zaporizhia Oblast | 3.1 | 0 → 13 | 18 | 27 |
| Kharkiv Oblast | 1.7 | 0 → 4 | 11 | 12 |
| Kyiv city | 1.2 | 0 → 7 | 1 | 15 |
| Yemen | 1.2 | 0 → 4 | 6 | 14 |
| Palestine | 1.0 | 0 → 8 | 7 | 4 |
| Kherson Oblast | 0.9 | 0 → 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Luhansk Oblast | 0.9 | 0 → 4 | 7 | 5 |
| Dnipropetrovsk Oblast | 0.6 | 0 → 4 | 6 | 2 |
| Samara Oblast | 0.6 | 0 → 4 | 6 | 2 |
| Belgorod Oblast | 0.6 | 0 → 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Nizhny Novgorod Oblast | 0.6 | 0 → 2 | 7 | 0 |
“Ordinary day”: 10th to 90th percentile of the last 4 weeks' days. On replayed days, the actual figure of the main regions fell within this range 94 times out of 100.
04Measured reliability
The forecast was replayed for each day from Sep 4 to Oct 21, with only what was known the evening before. Probability recalibration is learnt on the first half (Sep 4 → Sep 27); figures below come from the second (Sep 28 → Oct 21, 24 days), unseen by the method.
Out of 10 announced sectors, how many filmed
Announced probability and observed frequency · tomorrow
| Announced | Observed | Sector-days |
|---|---|---|
| 2 % | 2 % | 5,391 |
| 7 % | 7 % | 644 |
| 14 % | 12 % | 263 |
| 25 % | 22 % | 181 |
An honest forecast says 30% where about 30% is observed.
05Units filmed this week
| 3rd Special Operations DetachmentSpecial forces, intelligence · Zaporizhia Oblast | 10 |
| Hornets of the 3rd Special Operations RegimentSpecial forces, intelligence · Zaporizhia Oblast | 10 |
| Special Operations Center "East"Special forces, intelligence · Zaporizhia Oblast | 10 |
| Free Homeland ForcesCorps, armies, forces · Palestine | 6 |
| Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR)Special forces, intelligence · Kherson Oblast | 5 |
| Unit "Ghost"Other · Kherson Oblast | 5 |
| Unmanned Systems Battalion "Argos"Drones · Donetsk Oblast | 4 |
| 4th Guards Tank DivisionBrigades, regiments, battalions · Kharkiv Oblast | 2 |
| MFOther · Dgo. | 2 |
| Sudan Armed ForcesCorps, armies, forces · Sudan | 2 |
62 images out of 129 name a unit this week.
06Who posts this week
| Institution or unit | 2 % |
| News outlet | 2 % |
| Telegram channel (blogger, aggregator) | 3 % |
| X account (OSINT, individual) | 93 % |
| X @99Dominik_ · DominikX account (OSINT, individual) · Russia | 20 |
| Telegram exilenova_plus · Exilenova+Telegram channel (blogger, aggregator) · Ukraine | 12 |
| X @Maks_NAFO_FELLA · MAKS 26 🇺🇦👀X account (OSINT, individual) · Ukraine | 11 |
| X @NOELreports · NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦X account (OSINT, individual) · Ukraine | 11 |
| X @ZoamSc2 · ZoamX account (OSINT, individual) · Russia | 9 |
| X @Magyargeo56 · Карпатський MagyarX account (OSINT, individual) · Ukraine | 7 |
| X @ItayBlumental · איתי בלומנטל 🇮🇱 Itay BlumentalX account (OSINT, individual) · Other Militant Factions | 6 |
| X @Stinky915846091 · StinkyX account (OSINT, individual) · Other Militant Factions | 6 |
Share of images by type of the account that posted them first. Type inferred from the account name: an indication, not a check. 30-day detail →