Dawn Geopolitics
L'Aube Étoilée's watch institute
Field board
Open theatres and their intensity month by month. Figures come from ACLED, which records each event from the press and local sources, not from tolls announced by the warring parties. The latest published month stays incomplete for a few weeks.
Europe orientale
since 2022 · ISO UKR, RUS
Full-scale Russian invasion since 2022. Front line stabilised in the east (Donbas) and south (Zaporizhzhia, Kherson).
September 2026, political violence
10,248 events 3,983 deaths
↓ 4 % events against the previous three months' average
24 months · October 2026 incomplete (dotted)
Levant
since 2023 · ISO PSE, ISR, LBN
Israeli offensive in Gaza since October 2023, recurrent spillovers into South Lebanon (Hezbollah) and the West Bank.
September 2026, political violence
1,905 events 192 deaths
↑ 6 % events against the previous three months' average
24 months · October 2026 incomplete (dotted)
Afrique du Nord-Est
since 2023 · ISO SDN
Conflict between SAF (regular army) and RSF (Rapid Support Forces). Famine in Darfur, mass displacement.
September 2026, political violence
216 events 729 deaths
↓ 21 % events against the previous three months' average
24 months · October 2026 incomplete (dotted)
Sahel
since 2012 · ISO BFA, MLI, NER, TCD, NGA
Jihadist insurgency in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger (JNIM/ISGS); military juntas post-2020; French withdrawal.
September 2026, political violence
940 events 1,619 deaths
↓ 14 % events against the previous three months' average
24 months · October 2026 incomplete (dotted)
Asie du Sud-Est
since 2021 · ISO MMR
Multi-front insurrection against the Tatmadaw junta since the 2021 coup. Operation 1027 by the Three Brotherhood Alliance.
September 2026, political violence
678 events 768 deaths
↓ 12 % events against the previous three months' average
24 months · October 2026 incomplete (dotted)
Péninsule arabique
since 2014 · ISO YEM
Houthis vs. recognised government + Saudi-led coalition. Fragile truce since April 2022, Red Sea strikes since late 2023.
September 2026, political violence
1,406 events 3,312 deaths
↑ 293 % events against the previous three months' average
24 months · October 2026 incomplete (dotted)
Grands Lacs
since 2022 · ISO COD, RWA
M23 resurgence (Rwanda-backed per UN) in North Kivu. Goma fell late 2024, advance towards Bukavu.
September 2026, political violence
248 events 296 deaths
↑ 10 % events against the previous three months' average
24 months · October 2026 incomplete (dotted)
Levant
since 2024 · ISO SYR
Fall of the Assad regime in December 2024 (HTS+SNA). Kurdish (SDF) / Turkish / new Damascus authority recompositions.
September 2026, political violence
231 events 118 deaths
↓ 4 % events against the previous three months' average
24 months · October 2026 incomplete (dotted)
Corne de l'Afrique
since 2009 · ISO SOM
Federal government + ATMIS / AUSSOM vs. Al-Shabaab. Major attacks resurgence since 2024.
September 2026, political violence
405 events 343 deaths
↓ 16 % events against the previous three months' average
24 months · October 2026 incomplete (dotted)
Caraïbes
since 2024 · ISO HTI
State collapse facing gangs (Viv Ansanm) since 2024. Kenyan-led MMAS mission, fragile political transition.
September 2026, political violence
77 events 80 deaths
↓ 25 % events against the previous three months' average
24 months · October 2026 incomplete (dotted)
Data: ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project), via HDX HAPI (UN OCHA).