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Dawn Geopolitics

L'Aube Étoilée's watch institute

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Somalia insurgency

Federal government + ATMIS / AUSSOM vs. Al-Shabaab. Major attacks resurgence since 2024.

Started : 2009-01-31  ·  ISO SOM

September 2026

405

political violence events

September 2026

343

deaths

of which civilians targeted

60

events, 23 deaths

trend

↓ 16 %

events against the June 2026 – August 2026 average

Month by month

Political violence, last 24 months. October 2026 is still incomplete (dotted).

Events

520November 2024 : 238 eventsDecember 2024 : 252 eventsJanuary 2025 : 255 eventsJan 25February 2025 : 330 eventsMarch 2025 : 343 eventsApril 2025 : 235 eventsApr 25May 2025 : 240 eventsJune 2025 : 413 eventsJuly 2025 : 458 eventsJul 25August 2025 : 443 eventsSeptember 2025 : 429 eventsOctober 2025 : 454 eventsOct 25November 2025 : 420 eventsDecember 2025 : 420 eventsJanuary 2026 : 402 eventsJan 26February 2026 : 401 eventsMarch 2026 : 428 eventsApril 2026 : 419 eventsApr 26May 2026 : 357 eventsJune 2026 : 437 eventsJuly 2026 : 496 eventsJul 26August 2026 : 520 eventsSeptember 2026 : 405 eventsOctober 2026 : 319 events (incomplete month)Oct 26

Deaths

1,442November 2024 : 402 deathsDecember 2024 : 411 deathsJanuary 2025 : 548 deathsJan 25February 2025 : 1,224 deathsMarch 2025 : 1,442 deathsApril 2025 : 856 deathsApr 25May 2025 : 702 deathsJune 2025 : 883 deathsJuly 2025 : 846 deathsJul 25August 2025 : 876 deathsSeptember 2025 : 615 deathsOctober 2025 : 488 deathsOct 25November 2025 : 645 deathsDecember 2025 : 654 deathsJanuary 2026 : 867 deathsJan 26February 2026 : 677 deathsMarch 2026 : 662 deathsApril 2026 : 580 deathsApr 26May 2026 : 567 deathsJune 2026 : 358 deathsJuly 2026 : 471 deathsJul 26August 2026 : 581 deathsSeptember 2026 : 343 deathsOctober 2026 : 119 deaths (incomplete month)Oct 26

Demonstrations in September 2026: 81.

Worst-hit regions

Political violence, July 2026 – September 2026.

RegionEventsDeaths
Lower Shabelle448283
Bay151259
Middle Shabelle134155
Lower Juba129104
Bari11438
Hiraan108314
Banadir8647
Middle Juba4946

Recommended external sources

Data: ACLED, via HDX HAPI (UN OCHA), read on 2026.11.04. Tolls established by ACLED, not validated by the warring parties.