CARNET · 2026.05.04
Sahel: realignment has entered its institutionalization phase
From the French withdrawal to Russo-Turkish military deals: a cold read of the new influence map.
Three years after the 2022-2024 ruptures, the central Sahel (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) no longer operates as a French sphere of influence but as a contested space with multiple suppliers.
The Alliance of Sahel States (AES) is consolidating its architecture: common currency announced, joint force operational, ECOWAS withdrawal finalized. Security contracts now flow through Africa Corps (Russia), Bayraktar (Türkiye), STM (Türkiye) and, more discreetly, the UAE for logistics.
Institute reading: the 'pro-Russian vs. pro-Western' lens is obsolete. AES regimes buy where they can and where they pay for sovereignty at the lowest political cost. The next sequence will hinge on three variables: (1) Africa Corps's ability to deliver on security promises, (2) gold and uranium prices, (3) Morocco's posture on the Sahelian Atlantic.