Trump II doctrine: transaction, tariffs, chosen disengagement

Reading the second Trump administration's foreign policy requires abandoning two frames: isolationism and imperialism. Neither works. What we observe is older : a transactional diplomacy in the Nixon-Kissinger lineage for alliance geometry, and Reagan-style for economic pressure. With, in 2026, generalized tariffs as a framing lever.

Three lines have stabilized since February.

Tariffs as diplomatic grammar. The 10 % universal tariff and targeted surcharges (China, Mexico, EU on selected segments) are less a trade-balance instrument than a negotiation device. Each hike is a political call for tenders, payable in concession.

Conditional alliances. Support for Kyiv is conditioned on rare-earth sharing and broader European participation. Asian military presence is reaffirmed but invoiced : Tokyo and Seoul have accepted substantial contribution increases. NATO is not dissolved, it is renegotiated article by article, Article 5 included.

Technology as sovereign asset. Export controls on advanced semiconductors are tightening, bilateral AI agreements (UK, India, UAE) are multiplying. This is the real American diplomacy of the decade, and it is decided at the White House, not at the State Department.

Institute reading. European chancelleries used to a multilateralist Washington are burning diplomatic capital trying to restore the old frame. Those who have understood the rule, Warsaw first, negotiate bilaterally, against cash and capability. The question for Europe is not to wait for 2028 but to decide, by 2026, what it is worth without US tutelage.