A·G Dawn Geopolitics

L'Aube Étoilée's watch institute

Issue2026 · 282 Today2026.10.09 FR
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Iran

IRN · Western Asia

Iran

Shia regional power, advanced nuclear program, backer of the 'axis of resistance'. Sanctioned economy; rapprochement with Beijing and Moscow.

compare with…

Data refreshed on 2026.10.08 · source: Wikidata

Points to watch 2026.10.09

  • Alert

    Sanctions targeting the country: UN (1 regime, 121 listings), United States (14 regimes, 4,020 listings), United Kingdom (2 regimes, 570 listings), European Union (1 regime, 707 listings). UN, OFAC, FCDO, EU · 2026.10.07

  • Context

    Bases closed or handed over since 2024: Syria.

  • Context

    Not free according to Freedom House (score 10/100). Freedom House 2025

Drawn automatically from the file's layers, sources shown; no hand-written text. JSON

The Institute's composite reading

Crise

8.9 /10 risk

  • Security 8.5
  • Legitimacy 1.7
  • Economy 0.0
  • Diplomacy 0.0
  • Influence 2.1

Security: 0 stable → 10 unstable · others: 0 weak → 10 strong. Computed from V-Dem, FH, CPI, RSF, World Bank, SIPRI, sanctions.

State under international sanctions

  • UN Iran · resolution 1737 · since 2006 · 43 people and 78 entities listed
  • United States 14 programmes: financial sanctions, economic sectors, core regulations and others · 4,020 listings: 977 people, 2,226 entities, 817 vessels or aircraft comprehensive
  • EU 1 regime · 707 listings: 368 people, 339 entities broad
  • United Kingdom 2 regimes: nuclear and others · 570 listings: 305 people, 265 entities

UN list of 2026.10.07: 6 people and 27 entities linked to the country by nationality or a known address. Regimes: Iran (31), Democratic People's Republic of Korea (1), Taliban (Afghanistan) (1).

Listings linked to the country by nationality or address: United States 1,799 (list of 2026.10.02), United Kingdom 388 (list of 2026.10.07), EU 539 (list of 2026.09.22).

Capital
Tehran
Population
89,000,000 inh.
Area
1,648,195 km²
Currency
IRR
Regime
Theocratic Islamic republic

Executive in office

Mojtaba Khamenei

Head of State

Mojtaba Khamenei

since 2026.03.08 indépendant

Masoud Pezeshkian

Head of Government

Masoud Pezeshkian

since 2024.07.28 indépendant

Government in office 4 members

Abbas Araghtchi

ministre des Affaires étrangères de l'Iran

Abbas Araghtchi

since 2024.08.21 Foreign affairs

Majid Ebnelreza

Minister of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics

Majid Ebnelreza

since 2026.03.02 Defence

Seyed Ali Madanizadeh

Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance

Seyed Ali Madanizadeh

since 2025.06.16 Finance

Reza Salehi Amiri

ministre du Patrimoine culturel, de l'Artisanat et du Tourisme

Reza Salehi Amiri

since 2025.08.22 Parti pour la modération et le développement

Parliament

Madjles

290 seats

Chair Mohammad Ghalibaf

Inception 1906

Economic indicators World Bank · 2025

GDP

363 G$

2025 ↓ -23.7 % vs 2024

GDP / capita

3,924 $

2025 ↓ -24.4 % vs 2024

Growth

-2.8 %

2025 ↓ -6.5 pt vs 2024

Inflation

42.2 %

2025 ↑ +9.7 pt vs 2024

Unemployment

8.3 %

2025 ↑ +0.2 pt vs 2024

Defense / GDP

2.0 %

2024 ↓ -0.3 pt vs 2023

Life expectancy

77.9 yrs

2024 ↑ +0.3 % vs 2023

Military bases Institute · Wikipedia

active rotational or scaled down uncertain closed or handed over

Register kept by the Institute, updated 2026.10.08; coordinates and links read from Wikipedia.

Allied forces, no own base 3

  1. ·

    Popular Mobilization Forces

    Iraq · Irak

    Allied forces

    Allied militias, no declared Iranian base.

  2. ·

    Hezbollah

    Lebanon · Liban

    Allied forces

    Allied armed movement, weakened by the 2024 war.

  3. ·

    Houthis (Ansar Allah)

    Yemen · Nord du Yémen

    Allied forces

    Allied armed movement.

Closed or handed over 1

  1. 1

    Revolutionary Guards in Syria

    Syria · Damas, Deir ez-Zor

    Land · until 2024 · Wikipédia ↗

    Withdrawal after Bashar al-Assad's fall in December 2024.

    Closed or handed over

Military capabilities Wikipedia · IISS Military Balance résumés

Active

610 000

Reserve

350 000

Land

  • 100 Karrar Char (modernisation T-72 indigène)
  • 100 Zulfiqar-3 Char indigène
  • 480 T-72S Char (russe)
  • — Shahed-136 / -149 / -191 Drones one-way + ISR

Air

  • 41 F-14 Tomcat Chasseur (US, ères pré-1979, en service réduit)
  • 33 MiG-29A Chasseur
  • 64 F-4E Phantom II Chasseur
  • — Su-35 Flanker-E Chasseur (24 commandés à RUS — livraisons en cours)
  • — Kowsar Chasseur indigène (rétro-ingénierie F-5)

Naval

  • 3 Sous-marins classe Kilo Sous-marin (russe)
  • 23 Sous-marins miniatures Ghadir Sous-marin de poche
  • 5 Frégate Jamaran Frégate indigène

Doctrine asymétrique : drones, missiles, mandataires.

Nuclear posture

Capacité latente, au seuil

Programme avancé · seuil estimé < 12 mois selon IAEA

Strategic chokepoints 1 control point(s)

  • borde Détroit d'Ormuz 20% du pétrole mondial · 30% du GNL · capacité de blocage

Governance indices V-Dem 2025 · Freedom House 2026 · CPI 2025 · RSF 2026

Democracy (V-Dem)

0.16/1

#152 electoral autocracy 2025

Freedoms (Freedom House)

10/100

Not Free 2026

Corruption (CPI)

23/100

#1532025

Press freedom (RSF)

17/100

#1772026

Military posture SIPRI · 2025

Global spending rank

#37

SIPRI 2025

Annual budget

7.5 Md$

2025USD constants 2024

Defense effort

2.1 %PIB

2025

Strategic minerals USGS · production / réserves mondiales

  • #5 Zinc 2024
  • #6 Soufre 2024

Trade dependencies OEC · UN Comtrade · 2023

Exports

73 Md$

Imports

67 Md$

Balance

6 Md$

Top exports

  • Pétrole brut + raffiné (officiel) 20 Md$
  • Pétrochimie + plastiques 12 Md$
  • Pistaches + dattes + safran 3 Md$

Top imports

  • Riz + céréales 5 Md$
  • Or 4 Md$
  • Machines industrielles 4 Md$

Export partners

Import partners

Sanctions secondaires US masquent les flux réels — chiffres très estimatifs (statistiques officielles iraniennes + tracking pétroliers).

Diplomatic alignment UNGA 2020-2024 · Bailey-Strezhnev-Voeten

Vote concordance with each power at UN General Assembly.

  • USA 14%
  • GBR 12%
  • FRA 14%
  • DEU 14%
  • RUS 84%
  • CHN 88%
  • IND 64%
  • BRA 50%

Abstention: 6%

Key treaties UN Treaty Collection · IAEA · ICRC · OPCW

  • ✓

    NPT

    1968 Ratified

  • ◐

    CTBT

    1996 Signed, not ratified

  • ✗

    TPNW

    2017 Not party

  • ◐

    Rome Statute

    1998 Signed, not ratified

  • ✓

    Genocide

    1948 Ratified

  • ✓

    Geneva

    1949 Ratified

  • ✗

    Ottawa Mine Ban

    1997 Not party

  • ✗

    Oslo Cluster Munitions

    2008 Not party

  • ✗

    Arms Trade Treaty

    2013 Not party

  • ◐

    Paris Agreement

    2015 Signed, not ratified

Bilateral visits, last 24 months Wikipedia · communiqués officiels

Outgoing visits

  • 2025-09-23

    États-Unis · AGNU

    Pezeshkian · ouverture diplomatique

  • 2025-01-17

    Russie · Visite d'État

    Traité partenariat stratégique

Incoming visits

  • 2024-10-29

    Russie

    Lavrov · drones + dépôts pétroliers

Political calendar Institute · Wikipedia · 2026-10-08

Upcoming

  • 2028-06

    Présidentielle

    Question Khamenei (succession Guide suprême)

Last election

  • 2024-07-05

    Présidentielle (T2)

    Massoud Pezeshkian (réformateur) 54% · turnout 49.8%

Last institutional rupture 1979 (révolution islamique)

Society · human UNDP HDI 2023 · World Bank · WID · UNHCR 2025

HDI

0.799/1

#752023

Top 10% (wealth)

57.8 %

WID

Gini

35.9

moderate2023

Refugees hosted

770,514

UNHCR 2025

Refugees originating

157,912

UNHCR 2025

1er pays d'accueil pour Afghans

Disputed recognitions curé éditorial · UN Member States

Recognizes

  • Palestine

Does not recognize

  • Israël
  • Kosovo
  • Sahara marocain

National anthem

Sorud-é Djomhuri-yé Eslami

Alliances and organisations Institut · Wikidata

  • BRICS
  • OCS
  • OCI
  • UN
  • OPEC

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Global attention Wikipedia · 90 days

The country's Wikipedia article is usually read 9,110 times a day (French and English). On 2026.10.07: 7,763, or ×0.9.

French + English French usual level 2026.07.10 · 2026.10.07 Wikimedia statistics (CC0), human users

Sources and freshness

  • Executive, government, parliament, anthem · Wikidata (CC0) · 2026-10-08
  • Economy · World Bank (CC BY 4.0) · 2025
  • Indices and figures · V-Dem 2026 (OWID) · Freedom House 2026 (OWID) · Transparency International CPI 2025 · RSF 2026 · PNUD IDH 2025 (OWID) · Banque mondiale Gini 2023 · UNHCR 2025 · SIPRI 2026 (OWID) · read on 2026-10-08
  • Memberships · Wikidata (CC0) · 2026-10-08
  • Political calendar · Institute and Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0) · 2026-10-08
  • UN sanctions · Security Council consolidated list · list of 2026-10-07 · read on 2026-10-08
  • Sanctions · US Treasury (OFAC), SDN and non-SDN lists · list of 2026-10-02 · read on 2026-10-08
  • Sanctions · United Kingdom, UK Sanctions List (FCDO) · list of 2026-10-07 · read on 2026-10-08
  • Sanctions · European Union, consolidated financial sanctions list · list of 2026-09-22 · read on 2026-10-08
  • Institute dossier (sanctions, treaties, visits, capabilities) · as of 2026-05-01
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